PredictWise is a non-partisan research group that considers poll averages and "bookie data" (how much people will bet) on the ultimate winners, plus historical data about voting patterns, etc. Their track record is better than most polls.
1. Who will win the Republican nomination?
34% Marco Rubio
18% Jeb Bush
18% Donald Trump
10% Ben Carson
2. Who will win the Democratic nomination?
88% Hillary Clinton
13% Bernie Sanders
0% Martin O'Malley
3. Who will win the November presidential election?
58% Democratic candidate
42% Republican candidate
A CBS/NYT poll released Tuesday showed 7 out of 10 Republican voters say its too early to say for sure that they will vote for the one they currently favor. The current volatility is also reflected in how quickly the PredictWise numbers change, particularly in the second place slot, flipping back and forth between Bush and Trump.
Ralph
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