Thursday, October 29, 2015

Republican debate #3

Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz came under a lot of fire for sticking to her plan of only six debates, while the Republicans have something like twelve scheduled.

I agreed with those who objected, saying that the Democratic candidates were suffering from the lack of exposure while Republicans got 24 million viewers watching them.

Tonight, I watched Republican debate #3;   and now I'm beginning to agree with the DNC Chair.   Frankly, I'm not sure I can endure watching even one more, let alone nine more.  True, it was pretty lively -- but nobody really said anything new.   Fortunately, I had recorded it so I could fast-forward through some of the bloviating.

Here are some impressions:
     1.  Jeb didn't accomplish what he needed to do.   He badly needed a home run.   He got a single.
     2.  My opinion was not changed even slightly about any one of the 11 people on stage.
     3.  People who might have paid less attention to the campaign until now might have a better sense of who John Kasich is.   Ted Cruz seemed a little less creepy but hardly less unlikeable.  Donald Trump seemed even more vapid in his empty boasts.   Carson looked a bit less sedated but still makes claims he can't possibly carry out.   Bush was a little more aggressive and displayed his wonkiness, but his attack on Rubio fell flat and Rubio came out ahead.

Nate Silver and his gang at FiveThirtyEight thought that Rubio and Cruz were the winners.

My predictions:
1.  Carson will remain first in polls -- for a while.
2.  Trump will slip a few more points.
3.  Rubio helped himself a lot.  Watch out, Trump.
4.  Cruz might gain a couple of points.
5.  Kasich will gain a few points.
6.  Otherwise, not much change in the standings.

Ralph

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