NH: big night for Sanders, Trump, Kasich

Fascinating night of election returns and analysis in New Hampshire with big wins for Sanders, Trump, and Kasich, all of whom exceeded expectations.   As of this writing (Tuesday at midnight), 81% of the vote has been counted.

Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton by 60% to 39%.   He won in seemingly disparate demographic groups:  both gun owners and those who consider themselves "very liberal."  He of course won with young people under 30 by 85%.

According to exit polls, Sanders won 77% of Independents.  He won big with those who said these factors were of major importance to them:   honesty (92%), wants an outsider (89%), cares about people (81%), and worried about the economy (71%).  But here's the surprise:   he beat Clinton with women voters by 53% to 47%.

On the Republican side, Trump won with 35%, with Kasich taking second place with 16%.   Cruz, Bush, and Rubio were still battling it out for 3rd-4th-5th places around 11-12%, all within 1% of each other -- although the Cruz-Bush-Rubio order, slim as it is, has stuck throughout the evening.

Christie came in 6th place at 8%, with Fiorino at 4% and Carson at 2%.   Christie had earlier said he would be going to South Carolina tonight.  After the returns were so disappointing for him, his campaign announced he would be going back to New Jersey to reevaluate the strategy. 

Here are some additional thoughts about the results:

1.  By choosing Sanders and Trump, New Hampshire sent a clear message.   It was a repudiation of the establishment and the status quo -- and that includes political, economic, and the media.

2.  Christie's attack in the debate hurt Rubio, knocking him out of the second place win he needed in NH.   But it actually hurt Christie himself (as I suggested on Tuesday), and now it looks like he will probably be dropping out.

3.  Sanders' better-than-expectations win in New Hampshire cannot be dismissed as "next door neighbor," as Clinton supporters want to make it.   If it were that, why did he start out thirty points behind her in the polls -- and then finish 20 points ahead?   He was a NH neighbor from the beginning.

4.  He won because people see Clinton as establishment, too cozy with Wall Street (what did she tell the Goldman Sachs big wigs in that speech they paid her $150,000 to give?);*  and because they see Sanders as more authentic, more honest, and more attuned to their needs.

5.  Bernie Sanders got more total votes by far than Donald Trump did;  and, in fact, it may turn out that so did Hillary Clinton.   Remember, he won the NH primary with only 35% of the vote, because of the large number of candidates.

6.  I include Kasich as a winner, because I see him as winning the contest among the four establishment candidates, which gives him a needed big boost.  But will the GOP establishment and donors now embrace him?   Will he, along with Sanders and Trump, be able to win in other primaries going forward?   We now head south.  Is this winning territory for them?  Or is this just a blip on the way to someone else being nominated -- as New Hampshire often is.

7.  Kasich may catch on with voters.   He really found his footing in NH, and voters connected with his decency, his reasonableness, and his authenticity.   Rachel Maddow was there and observed both Kasich and Christie in their rallies.    She said, apart from the substance of what either of them said, their engagement with the people was vastly different.   Christie "performed" for the crowd.   But Kasich really listened, made a connection with each person, and actually engaged in a conversation with them.   Bernie Sanders has the same quality.   That, as they say, is yuuuge.   Especially in a place like New Hampshire. 

Ralph

* Correction:   Clinton was paid $675,000 for three speeches to Goldman Sachs.