Republican debate -- ongoing thoughts

Some random thoughts about Saturday's debate.
1.  We keep forgetting what got so little attention.    Going into the debate, 40% of the voters were still undecided.   At least they said they could still change their minds.   That makes prediction, especially after this debate, very difficult.

2.  Christie did Jeb Bush a big favor in taking Rubio down from his rapid rise as the heir apparent.   Christie is not going to benefit as much from it himself as Bush will, in that Bush has the money and organization to keep going and Christie does not. 

3.  With Rubio stalled, with Bush and Kasich both having had their best debate nights, and with Christie doing the dirty work -- the race among those four will not be decided in New Hampshire but will go on to South Carolina.

4.  Christie's success in slowing Rubio may hurt Christie himself.  It wound up putting Bush and Kasich in a stronger position and solidifying Christie's position as the least among those four.

5.  Trump just needed to hold on to his lead, and he probably did that, although Bush did very credibly beat him on the question of imminent domain.   Cruz was damaged by the exposure of his dirty tricks, which may lead some of his evangelical followers to rethink whether he is really the pious leader they thought.  I don't for a minute think Cruz is innocent in this.   In fact, he lied in his explanation of what happened.   CNN amended its original message almost immediately, to clarify that Carson was not withdrawing.  I was not three hours later as Cruz said.

6.  The whole scandal about Cruz's campaign spreading the rumor that Carson was dropping out has probably also delayed the actuality of Carson's dropping out.   There's no way he's going to let that false rumor be proved true any time soon.   So expect Carson to stay in for a while.   He'll get a lot of sympathy money from supporters that will make it possible for him to continue a little longer.

7.  Most important of all:   This is all speculation.   Let's see what the voters decide, and then try to interpret what that all means.

Ralph