The day after Iowa

With a record number over 170,000 people attending the Iowa Democratic caucuses, Hillary Clinton eked out the narrowest win in their caucus history of just 0.3% of the vote.   In the arcane way of delegate allocation, however, she gets 23 delegates, with 21 going to Sanders.

Clinton     49.9%   23 delegates  (I was wrong earlier in saying 28)
Sanders    49.6%   21 delegates
O'Malley      0.6%    0 delegates

Clinton was fast to claim victory, and she turned out not to be wrong (barring problems with questionably reliable counts in some precincts).   But there can be little real rejoicing over a victory the final polls predicted her win by 3% (not the 0.3% she actually won by).   So I still count it a significant almost-win for Sanders -- and perhaps a psychological win.

On the Republican side, most media I'm reading is calling Donald Trump "the big loser."   What it shows, according to this wisdom, is that his do-it-yourself campaign can't deliver the votes that his popularity promises when it comes down to ground organization and getting out the vote.

It puts a crimp in his sails and will likely hurt his lead in New Hampshire.   Here are the Republican final percentage votes plus delegates to the national convention

Cruz        27.6%       8 delegates
Trump    24.3%      7 delegates
Rubio      23.1%       7 delegates
Carson       9.3%      3 delegates
Paul            4.5%       1 delegates
Bush           2.8%       1 delegates

Even though Trump lost -- and just barely edged out Rubio for second place -- Sam Stein and Jennifer Bendery, political writers for Huffington Post, emphasized that Trump's  impact on the race has been immense and will be long-lasting.

Rubio now emerges as the establishment candidate to coalesce around.   He got the same number of delegates as #2 Trump and only 1 less delegate than #1 Cruz.   This should mean a lot of money now comes his way, plus pressure on Bush, Kasich, and Christie to drop out.  Bush could do himself a favor and restore his reputation and legacy by withdrawing and endorsing his old protege Rubio.

Cruz's first place showing, despite the attacks from all sides on him in recent weeks, gives him some momentum.  The elimination fight between Cruz and Trump is still on for another day.  As Stein and Bendery write:

"That portends both a massive headache for the Republican Party, which faces the very real prospect of a fissure in the months ahead, and for voters across the country, who now must soberly envision life under Trump's nativist policies or a slightly diluted variation of them. 

"Things were even more muddied on the Democratic side . . . where former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton clung to a marginal lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders . . . [but] it will be something of a Pyrrhic victory. Rather than show herself to be the inevitable nominee on Monday . . .  she struggled to handle a man she once led by more than 50 points in the polls.

"Now, Clinton faces the prospect of an upcoming loss in New Hampshire, where Sanders enjoys a healthy lead, and a drawn-out fight for the nomination. Whoever wins will inevitably be forced to empty his or her copious war chest and resort to more personal attacks in the process. . . .

"Iowa, in short, was not so much the first domino of the campaign season as it was a warning shot for each political party. Existential questions and messy disputes lie ahead."

There's also the question of how Donald Trump will react to losing.   His concession speech was unlike what we might have expected.   It was short, dignified, gracious, very unexpected.

Will he bring in some experienced political operatives?   Will he now put money into attack ads on Cruz?   Or will he do his pivot now and try to present himself as someone acceptable both to the conservative base and to the party establishment?   In other words compete with Rubio rather than with Cruz?   Will he become a serious candidate -- as his concession speech suggests he might?

Stay tuned.

Ralph