Bipartisan gun bill could "break the NRA's back"

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who led the 15 hour talking filibuster for gun control last week, thinks the bipartisan -- though far weaker -- gun control bill being authored by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has a chance of passing.   Although the bill is very small in scope, Murphy is upbeat about the importance of passing it, because it would "break the back" of the NRA.

When the two bills failed to pass on Monday (to expand background checks and to ban gun purchases by those on the no-fly watch lists), Republican Senator Collins began to construct a bill she hoped would get bipartisan support and pass.

Collins' bill would ban firearm sales to the 81,000 people on the TSA's no-fly list, as well as another list of 28,000 "selectees" who are allowed to fly but only after extra screening.   In contrast, the "watch" list, which the prior bill would have restricted, had up to a million names, many of which are on it in error.   Remember when Sen. Edward Kennedy somehow wound up on that list and temporarily was unable to fly?  The overall watch list is like an "in basket," where names are put from a variety of sources and for various reasons -- and some are inappropriate.   The sheer size means that investigating them all is a huge never-ending task.

So the criticism of that bill was that it had too many innocent people on it, and it is sometimes difficult to get your name off.   The problem with the Collins bill is that it covers just 109,000 people most of whom are foreign nationals.   Many people on the larger list shouldn't be there;  many people who shouldn't have guns are not on the smaller lists.
 
Still, Sen. Chris Murphy is enthusiastic about the prospect of the senate actually passing a gun control measure because, as he explains, it would be the first defeat for the NRA and its powerful lobbying machine.  In effect, it would "break the back" and prove to senators that they can survive without the NRA's support.

Sen. Murphy was interviewed by Chris Hayes on MSNBC Tuesday night.   These two very smart men agreed that the problem with the NRA's influence is not just that it spreads around so much money to support some candidates and bash others, but that it has become a sort of identity to prove politician's conservative credentials.    They didn't use the word, which is somewhat tainted by all the attention to the Trump "brand;"  but it's a good way to describe this effect:   being for "the NRA" is identifying yourself with a brand that is vital to have in conservative circles.

Sen. Collins says that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has told her that he will schedule a vote within the next two weeks.   In addition to Collins, the bill is co-sponsored by Senators Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H), Jeff Flake, (R-AZ), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Bill Nelson (D-FL), and Angus King, an independent from Maine who caucuses with Democrats.

Even if it gets the 60 votes to pass cloture in the Senate, getting it passed in the House may be a bigger problem.   But then the Sit In For a Vote, sparked by John Lewis, began on the House floor:   dozens of House Democrats sitting on the floor in the well of the House, chanting "No Vote, No Break," while Paul Ryan conducts a vote on a completely unrelated bill, trying to pretend that nothing is happening.   It is a scene like nothing that has ever happened in the House before.  So -- stay tuned.

Ralph