Friday, October 14, 2016

"Sexual predator" Trump really is a deal breaker

Want some statistical evidence of how big a deal breaker this sexual predatory meme can be?   The Marquette University poll of Wisconsin likely voters was being conducted from Thursday through Sunday last week.   Midway in that polling, on Friday afternoon, came the news of Trump's explicit sex-talk tape.

The poll reported the overall result from the four days of polling, which gave Clinton a 7% lead in Wisconsin.  But they also broke down the results, day by day, for Thursday, Friday, and the combined Saturday/Sunday.

                        Thursday    Friday     Sat/Sunday
Clinton               40               44                 49
Trump                41                38                 30                

Over the course of four days, with the tape released in the middle, Trump went from plus 1% to minus 19% -- a 20 point reversal.     It may reflect some immediate shock effect and could swing back a bit.   We also don't know whether the same demographic balance was polled each day, which wouldn't matter in the overall result but would on a daily basis -- i.e., men could have been over-represented one day, women another.  But it is undeniable that it is a dramatic reversal and a solid overall lead of 7% for Clinton.

In unrelated prediction ratings:   Predictwise, using market-based, betting methods, puts Clinton's chance of winning is 91%.   In the Huffington Post computer-simulations, she wins 91.6% of the time.  Nate Silver's 538 predict model is more cautious.  He gives Clinton only an 85.6% chance of winning.    Only.  Ha !!  


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